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Guingamp vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Guingamp
Guingamp
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bastia
Bastia
R. Beliandjou 51'
5/2/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade de Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Guingamp42%
×Draw27%
Bastia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.36
Bastia
1.11

Guingamp creates 23% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 91 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.39
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

Guingamp
1.19
Bastia
1.33

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
69%
Guingamp or Bastia
73%
Draw or Bastia
58%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
20%
Bastia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
74%
Guingamp 2+ goals
39%
Guingamp 3+ goals
16%
Bastia 1+ goals
67%
Bastia 2+ goals
30%
Bastia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
58%
Bastia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.39 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bastia attack 1.03 + Guingamp defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guingamp scores more
42%
level
27%
Bastia scores more
31%

Guingamp at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
A. OrtolaGuingampGuingamp · G
7.7

Match Events

44'
A. Sissoko← S. Nair
51'
R. Beliandjou
60'
E. Koffi← J. Matumona
60'
F. Mbemba← A. Sagna
61'
Y. Demoncy← K. Sidibe
70'
Y. Njoya← T. Ahile
71'
F. Bohnert← J. Eickmayer
72'
J. Sebas← R. Beliandjou
85'
A. Boutrah← A. Zaouai

Possession

69%Guingamp

Shots

9Guingamp

Pass accuracy

58%Guingamp

Statistics

GuingampBastia
Overview
69%Possession31%
9Total Shots11
2Corners5
8Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots11
0On Target6
5Off Target2
4Blocked3
3Inside Box9
6Outside Box2
Passing
69%Possession31%
568Total Passes251
477Accurate Passes156
84%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
8Fouls11
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Guingamp vs Bastia

Bastia beat Guingamp 1-0 in Ligue 2 on May 2, 2026.

Goals: R. Beliandjou (51').

Guingamp controlled possession (69%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade de Roudourou in Guingamp.