Bastia 3–1 Guingamp: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Bastia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guingamp

J. Maggiotti 86'

L. Cissé 72' (pen)

F. Tomi 50'

J. Siwe 32'

12/13/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Bastia39%

×Draw28%

Guingamp32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BastiaExpected goals in this matchGuingamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.08

Bastia

1.22

Guingamp

1.08

Bastia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 125 away

1.18

creates per match

1.24

0.93

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Bastia

1.18

Guingamp

1.24

allows per match

Bastia

0.93

Guingamp

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par

Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Guingamp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bastia or draw

68%

Bastia or Guingamp

72%

Draw or Guingamp

61%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+

17%

Guingamp wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals

70%

Bastia 2+ goals

34%

Bastia 3+ goals

12%

Guingamp 1+ goals

66%

Guingamp 2+ goals

29%

Guingamp 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)

55%

Guingamp (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Guingamp defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Guingamp attack 1.24 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bastia scores more

39%

level

28%

Guingamp scores more

32%

Bastia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Z. Ariss

Bastia · D

8.5

Match Events

18'

Tom Meynadier

32'

J. Siwe

39'

Amine Hemia

46'

Z. Ariss← T. Meynadier

46'

A. Boutrah← C. Rodrigues

50'

F. Tomi↳ Z. Ariss

54'

Alpha Sissoko

57'

Kalidou Sidibé

63'

Dominique Guidi

64'

S. Guendouz← R. Ghrieb

72'

L. CisséPenalty

73'

J. Maggiotti← C. Inao Oulaï

73'

L. Tramoni← F. Tomi

73'

B. Labeau← A. Hemia

79'

A. Roncaglia← C. Vincent

79'

R. Touzghar← D. Louiserre

79'

T. Luvambo← J. Siwe

86'

J. Maggiotti↳ Z. Ariss

90+3'

Taylor Luvambo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BastiaGuingamp

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots5

8Corners4

18Fouls21

Shots

16Total Shots5

7On Target3

5Off Target1

4Blocked1

13Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

332Total Passes330

247Accurate Passes249

74%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls21

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides6