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Guingamp vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Guingamp
Guingamp
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bastia
Bastia
I. Dramé 26'
4/20/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Guingamp42%
×Draw27%
Bastia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.36
Bastia
1.11

Guingamp creates 23% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 91 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.39
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

Guingamp
1.19
Bastia
1.33

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
69%
Guingamp or Bastia
73%
Draw or Bastia
58%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
20%
Bastia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
74%
Guingamp 2+ goals
39%
Guingamp 3+ goals
16%
Bastia 1+ goals
67%
Bastia 2+ goals
30%
Bastia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
58%
Bastia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.39 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bastia attack 1.03 + Guingamp defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guingamp scores more
42%
level
27%
Bastia scores more
31%

Guingamp at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. MerghemGuingampGuingamp · M
8.9

Match Events

26'
I. Dramé↳ F. Bianchini
37'
Lucas Maronnier
44'
Tom Ducrocq
63'
A. Sagna← H. Picard
64'
L. Vallier← L. Maronnier
71'
B. Santelli← M. Alfarela
74'
B. Guillaume← J. Siwe
74'
B. Roux← D. Gomis
75'
M. Siby← C. Vincent
80'
K. Sidibé← D. Louiserre
82'
F. Tomi← T. Ducrocq
82'
G. Charbonnier← F. Bianchini

Possession

55%Guingamp

Shots

18Guingamp

Pass accuracy

52%Guingamp

Statistics

GuingampBastia
Overview
55%Possession45%
18Total Shots5
9Corners2
13Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots5
6On Target2
8Off Target1
4Blocked2
10Inside Box4
8Outside Box1
Passing
55%Possession45%
450Total Passes383
355Accurate Passes281
79%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Guingamp vs Bastia

Bastia beat Guingamp 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 20, 2024.

Goals: I. Dramé (26').

Guingamp controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.