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Guayaquil City FC vs Delfin SC — Liga Pro 2026

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
A. Naula 90+4'
P. Gonzalez 49'
F. Ayunta 7'
7/11/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 18Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Guayaquil City FC48%
×Draw26%
Delfin SC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.46
Delfin SC
1.00

Guayaquil City FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 133 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.24
Delfin SC
0.95

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.05
Delfin SC
1.67

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
74%
Guayaquil City FC or Delfin SC
74%
Draw or Delfin SC
52%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
24%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
77%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
43%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
18%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
63%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
26%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
65%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.24 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Delfin SC attack 0.95 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Delfin SC scores more
26%

Guayaquil City FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
F. Ayunta
49'
P. Gonzalez↳ M. Bolanos
51'
J. Morocho
66'
J. L. Castillo Saa
68'
E. Caicedo← G. Heredia
68'
E. Zuniga← T. Ozaeta
71'
M. Bolanos
74'
E. Zuniga
78'
L. Castro← J. Morocho
79'
D. Dorregaray← E. Mero
79'
E. Cabezas← D. Diaz
87'
A. Naula← P. Gonzalez
87'
J. Arce← F. Ayunta
90'
M. Palma← M. Bolanos
90'
J. Ordonez← R. Arias
90+4'
A. Naula↳ J. J. Ayovi Caicedo
90+5'
A. Naula

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Guayaquil City FC 2–1 Delfin SC

Guayaquil City FC beat Delfin SC 2-1 in Liga Pro on July 11, 2026.

Goals: F. Ayunta (7'), P. Gonzalez (49'), A. Naula (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt in Guayaquil.