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Delfin SC vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2026

Delfin SC
Delfin SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
F. Ayunta 90' (pen)
3/7/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 3Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Delfin SC52%
×Draw26%
Guayaquil City FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delfin SC
1.52
Guayaquil City FC
0.89

Delfin SC creates 71% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 95 away

creates per match

Delfin SC
1.37
Guayaquil City FC
0.78

allows per match

Delfin SC
0.99
Guayaquil City FC
1.67

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw
78%
Delfin SC or Guayaquil City FC
74%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
48%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+
27%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals
78%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
45%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
20%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
59%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
22%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)
70%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 131 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.37 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.78 + Delfin SC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Delfin SC scores more
52%
level
26%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
22%

Delfin SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
F. AyuntaDelfin SCDelfin SC · F
8.2

Match Events

37'
Anthony Bedoya Caicedo
48'
Roger Arias
58'
M. Reyes← E. Zuniga
72'
Marcos Mejía
77'
K. Ushina← M. Mejia
77'
F. Perinciolo← F. Ratotti
77'
J. Humanante← D. Diaz
77'
P. Gonzalez← P. Mancilla
77'
E. P. Ladines Calvache← K. Sambonino
77'
M. Palma← A. Naula
80'
Manuel Palma
86'
M. Julio← S. Laurino
90+5'
O. Medina← L. Castro
90'
F. AyuntaPenalty

Possession

33%Delfin

Shots

10Delfin

Pass accuracy

46%Delfin

Statistics

DelfinGuayaquil
Overview
33%Possession67%
10Total Shots6
2Corners5
11Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots6
3On Target2
5Off Target1
2Blocked3
4Inside Box5
6Outside Box1
Passing
33%Possession67%
228Total Passes508
157Accurate Passes418
69%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Liga Pro: Delfin SC 1–0 Guayaquil City FC

Delfin SC beat Guayaquil City FC 1-0 in Liga Pro on March 7, 2026.

Goals: F. Ayunta (90' pen).

Guayaquil City FC controlled possession (67%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.