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Guayaquil City FC vs Delfin SC — Copa Ecuador 2022

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FCadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
E. Mero 85', 60'
A. Naula 36'
Unknown 77'
9/8/2024Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 16Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Guayaquil City FC61%
×Draw20%
Delfin SC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
2.25
Delfin SC
1.17

Guayaquil City FC creates 92% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
2.50
Delfin SC
1.33

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.00
Delfin SC
2.00

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
81%
Guayaquil City FC or Delfin SC
80%
Draw or Delfin SC
39%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
39%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
89%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
65%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
39%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
69%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
33%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
76%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 2.50 + Delfin SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Delfin SC attack 1.33 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
61%
level
20%
Delfin SC scores more
19%

Guayaquil City FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
A. Naula
41'
42'
60'
E. Mero
77'
78'
85'
E. Mero
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guayaquil City FC vs Delfin SC

Guayaquil City FC beat Delfin SC 3-1 in Copa Ecuador on September 8, 2024.

Goals: A. Naula (36'), E. Mero (60', 85'), ? (77').

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.