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Guaraní de Trinidad vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo — Division Intermedia 2018

Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
FT
2 – 1
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
5/8/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 6Estadio Club Guaraní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guaraní de Trinidad31%
×Draw30%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Trinidad
0.98
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.15

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 92 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
0.91
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.20

allows per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.09
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.04

finishing

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par
Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Trinidad ↓

Club Sp. San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guaraní de Trinidad or draw
60%
Guaraní de Trinidad or Club Sp. San Lorenzo
70%
Draw or Club Sp. San Lorenzo
69%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
11%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
62%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
26%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
8%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals
68%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals
32%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
44%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Trinidad at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 0.91 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
31%
level
30%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more
40%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guaraní de Trinidad 2–1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Guaraní de Trinidad beat Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2-1 in Division Intermedia on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Club Guaraní in Trinidad.