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Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Guaraní de Trinidad — Division Intermedia 2018

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
FT
1 – 0
Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
8/13/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 23Estadio Gunther Vogel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo49%
×Draw26%
Guaraní de Trinidad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.49
Guaraní de Trinidad
0.99

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 32 away

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.64
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.06

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0.91
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.34

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par
Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

Guaraní de Trinidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw
75%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo or Guaraní de Trinidad
74%
Draw or Guaraní de Trinidad
51%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+
24%
Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals
77%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals
44%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals
19%
Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
63%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
26%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
66%
Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

Guaraní de Trinidad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.49

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 1.06 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more
49%
level
26%
Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
25%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 Guaraní de Trinidad

Club Sp. San Lorenzo beat Guaraní de Trinidad 1-0 in Division Intermedia on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Gunther Vogel in San Lorenzo.