Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–0 Guaraní de Trinidad

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guaraní de Trinidad

V. Gonzalez 58'

J. Quintana 22'

7/31/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Gunther Vogel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo49%

×Draw26%

Guaraní de Trinidad25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Sp. San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchGuaraní de Trinidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.99

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.49

Guaraní de Trinidad

0.99

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 32 away

1.64

creates per match

1.06

0.91

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.64

Guaraní de Trinidad

1.06

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

0.91

Guaraní de Trinidad

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

Guaraní de Trinidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw

75%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or Guaraní de Trinidad

74%

Draw or Guaraní de Trinidad

51%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

24%

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

77%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

44%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

19%

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals

63%

Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals

26%

Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

66%

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

Guaraní de Trinidad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.49

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 1.06 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

49%

level

26%

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more

25%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

J. Quintana

58'

V. Gonzalez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff