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Guarani Campinas vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
9/30/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 26Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Guarani Campinas42%
×Draw29%
Atletico Goianiense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani Campinas
1.21
Atletico Goianiense
0.97

Guarani Campinas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 84 away

creates per match

Guarani Campinas
1.20
Atletico Goianiense
1.05

allows per match

Guarani Campinas
0.88
Atletico Goianiense
1.23

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par
Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Atletico Goianiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw
71%
Guarani Campinas or Atletico Goianiense
71%
Draw or Atletico Goianiense
58%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
18%
Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
70%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
34%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
12%
Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
59%
Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.88 · 133 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.20 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.05 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more
42%
level
29%
Atletico Goianiense scores more
29%

Guarani Campinas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Guarani Campinas 2–0 Atletico Goianiense

Guarani Campinas beat Atletico Goianiense 2-0 in Serie B on September 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas.