Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Guarani Campinas

Atletico Goianiense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani Campinas

Mike 68'

6/6/2019

Serie B · Round 7Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Atletico Goianiense48%

×Draw27%

Guarani Campinas25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.90

Atletico Goianiense

1.38

Guarani Campinas

0.90

Atletico Goianiense creates 53% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 133 away

1.47

creates per match

0.86

0.93

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.47

Guarani Campinas

0.86

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.93

Guarani Campinas

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

75%

Atletico Goianiense or Guarani Campinas

73%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

52%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

23%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

40%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

16%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

59%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

23%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

66%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.93 · 85 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.28 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.47 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Guarani Campinas attack 0.86 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

48%

level

27%

Guarani Campinas scores more

25%

Atletico Goianiense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Kozlinski

Atletico Goianiense · G

7.5

Match Events

23'

Bruno Lima

42'

Gustavo

52'

Lucas Oliveira

57'

Jarro Pedroso← H. Bustamante

63'

Gilsinho← Pedro Raul

66'

Felipe Amorim

67'

Mateus Jesus← Felipe Amorim

68'

Mike

78'

Diego Cardoso← Deivid

83'

Gilvan

89'

André Luis← Mike

89'

Deivid← Éder Luís

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoGuarani

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots17

5Corners4

18Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots17

4On Target3

5Off Target13

5Blocked1

7Inside Box11

7Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

340Total Passes316

253Accurate Passes220

74%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1