Atletico Goianiense 3–0 Guarani Campinas

Atletico Goianiense

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani Campinas

11/25/2023

Serie B · Round 38Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Atletico Goianiense48%

×Draw27%

Guarani Campinas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.90

Atletico Goianiense

1.39

Guarani Campinas

0.90

Atletico Goianiense creates 54% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 133 away

1.49

creates per match

0.86

0.93

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.49

Guarani Campinas

0.86

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.93

Guarani Campinas

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

76%

Atletico Goianiense or Guarani Campinas

73%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

52%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

23%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

40%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

16%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

59%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

23%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

66%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.93 · 85 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.28 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.49 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Guarani Campinas attack 0.86 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

48%

level

27%

Guarani Campinas scores more

24%

Atletico Goianiense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff