Gualberto Villarroel SJ 5–0 ABB: Result & Stats

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

ABB

J. Ramallo 83'

F. Roca 57', 50' (pen)

F. Vasquez 45'

S. Galindo 15'

7/3/2025

League #964 · Copa Bolivia - 4Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ76%

×Draw14%

ABB10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualberto Villarroel SJExpected goals in this matchABB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.93

1.00

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2.93

ABB

1.00

Gualberto Villarroel SJ creates 193% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

3.00

ABB

1.00

allows per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.00

ABB

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

ABB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualberto Villarroel SJ ↓

ABB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw

90%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or ABB

86%

Draw or ABB

24%

Winning margin

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+

56%

ABB wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals

94%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals

78%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals

55%

ABB 1+ goals

63%

ABB 2+ goals

26%

ABB 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)

88%

ABB (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

ABB away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 3.00 + ABB defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.93

ABB attack 1.00 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more

76%

level

14%

ABB scores more

10%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Gualberto Villarroel SJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

S. Galindo↳ F. Arismendi

23'

29'

43'

45+4'

45'

F. Vasquez↳ J. Ramallo

46'

P. Anez← S. Galindo

46'

J. Rivas← M. Galindo

50'

F. RocaPenalty

57'

F. Roca

62'

D. Vargas← J. Bejarano

62'

B. Vides← F. Roca

63'

M. Flores← L. Vaca

65'

R. Orihuela

67'

J. Villamil

74'

D. Saavedra← G. Tapia

74'

R. Bustos← F. Arismendi

78'

J. Ribera← S. Villamil

81'

J. Vedia

83'

J. Ramallo↳ S. Galindo

88'

B. VidesGoal Disallowed - offside

Gualberto

ABB

12

Pereira

13

Orihuela

29

▼

Galindo

34

Gutierrez

42

Ardaya

16

▼

Salazar

44

▼

Bharti

25

▼

Galindo

39

▼

17

9

25

2

⚽A

Ramallo

39

▼

Tapia

15

▼

Villamil

33

Landa

3

Villamil

16

A

▼

Arismendi

21

▼

Bejarano

30

⚽

Vasquez

17

⚽2

▼

Roca

10

⚽A

Galindo

Manager: Eduardo Andrés Villegas Camara

62'▲D. Vargas←▼J. Bejarano

62'▲B. Vides←▼F. Roca

74'▲D. Saavedra←▼G. Tapia

74'▲R. Bustos←▼F. Arismendi

78'▲J. Ribera←▼S. Villamil

Gualberto Villarroel SJ substitutes

13Paz1Poveda20Cabrera22Roca55Vargas12Ribera26Saavedra6Serrano38Valdez31Bustos32Vides

Manager: Facundo Biondi

29'▲C. Jemio←▼A. Bharti

43'▲J. Vedia←▼M. Salazar

46'▲P. Anez←▼S. Galindo

46'▲J. Rivas←▼M. Galindo

63'▲M. Flores←▼L. Vaca

ABB substitutes

23Auza14Jemio22Anez26Mollinedo75Rivas27Concha10Vedia32Condori77Rivas18Flores