ABB 0–0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ: Result & Stats

ABB

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

9/17/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 20Estadio Municipal de El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ABB44%

×Draw24%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABBExpected goals in this matchGualberto Villarroel SJ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.36

ABB

1.65

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.36

ABB creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 40 away

1.40

creates per match

1.13

1.60

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

ABB

1.40

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.13

allows per match

ABB

1.60

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABB+0.00on par

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABB ↓

Gualberto Villarroel SJ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ABB or draw

68%

ABB or Gualberto Villarroel SJ

76%

Draw or Gualberto Villarroel SJ

56%

Winning margin

ABB wins by 2+

23%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ABB 1+ goals

81%

ABB 2+ goals

49%

ABB 3+ goals

23%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals

74%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals

39%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

ABB (draw refunded)

58%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABB at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABB attack 1.40 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.65

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 1.13 + ABB defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ABB scores more

44%

level

24%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more

32%

ABB at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ABB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

M. Galindo

39'

J. Bejarano

43'

J. BejaranoGoal Disallowed - offside

45+5'

F. Biondi

46'

D. Gutierrez← R. Ardaya

46'

P. Loza← S. Galindo

46'

O. Siles← A. Bejarano

59'

F. Vasquez

68'

J. Rivas← A. Arroyo

69'

Mizael Monteiro

70'

S. Villamil← J. Bejarano

71'

T. Monterubianessi← F. Andrada

71'

73'

79'

84'

90+1'

90'

90'

J. Ribera← S. Galindo

90'

F. Roca← F. Arismendi

ABB

Gualberto

25

Rivas

27

Ceceri

2

Ramallo

21

▼

23

55

4

16

▼

Arismendi

7

▼

Andrada

10

▼

Galindo

30

▼

23

2

16

29

▼

Galindo

4

Monteiro

17

Mendieta

30

▼

Bejarano

25

Galindo

11

▼

Arroyo

51

▼

Terrazas

42

▼

Ardaya

Manager: Facundo Biondi

46'▲D. Gutierrez←▼R. Ardaya

46'▲P. Loza←▼S. Galindo

46'▲O. Siles←▼A. Bejarano

68'▲J. Rivas←▼A. Arroyo

90'▲J. Mena←▼R. Terrazas

ABB substitutes

12Pereira9Cervantes15Mena13Orihuela34Gutierrez80Loza14Jemio18Flores36Siles45Salazar10Vedia77Rivas

Manager: Braian Argandona

70'▲S. Villamil←▼J. Bejarano

71'▲T. Monterubianessi←▼F. Andrada

71'▲S. Pena←▼F. Vasquez

90'▲J. Ribera←▼S. Galindo

90'▲F. Roca←▼F. Arismendi

Gualberto Villarroel SJ substitutes

1Poveda3Villamil5Seimandi8Escobar11Monterubianessi12Ribera15Villamil17Roca22Roca28Pena33Landa40Vargas