Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1–1 ABB: Result & Stats

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ABB

J. Lopez 80'

J. Ramallo 81' (OG)

4/26/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ65%

×Draw18%

ABB17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualberto Villarroel SJExpected goals in this matchABB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.17

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2.46

ABB

1.17

Gualberto Villarroel SJ creates 110% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

2.15

creates per match

1.10

1.23

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2.15

ABB

1.10

allows per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.23

ABB

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

ABB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualberto Villarroel SJ ↓

ABB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw

83%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or ABB

82%

Draw or ABB

35%

Winning margin

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+

43%

ABB wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals

91%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals

70%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals

44%

ABB 1+ goals

69%

ABB 2+ goals

33%

ABB 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)

80%

ABB (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.23 · 40 matches

ABB away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 2.15 + ABB defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.46

ABB attack 1.10 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more

65%

level

18%

ABB scores more

17%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Gualberto Villarroel SJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

26'

33'

42'

45+4'

52'

52'

57'

59'

E. Paniagua← J. Vedia

59'

Paulo Henrique← J. Rivas

59'

M. Salazar← M. Quiroga

65'

A. Bejarano

67'

Paulo Henrique

67'

F. Arismendi← D. Roca

67'

D. Saavedra← A. Mamani

67'

J. Mena← L. Vaca

72'

J. Ribera← J. Bejarano

72'

A. Medina← D. Calero

75'

R. Ardaya← A. Bejarano

80'

J. Lopez↳ F. Roca

81'

J. RamalloOwn goal

84'

J. Alaca

86'

E. Paniagua

90+9'

A. Medina

Gualberto

ABB

1

Galarza

21

Meza

77

▼

Rivas

30

▼

Bejarano

8

▼

Quiroga

39

▼

Vaca

7

Romay

10

▼

3

17

33

1

33

2

🥅

Ramallo

22

▼

Roca

5

Seimandi

21

▼

Bejarano

11

⚽

Lopez

24

▼

Mamani

15

Villamil

9

▼

Becerra

14

▼

Calero

Manager: Eduardo Andrés Villegas Camara

57'▲F. Roca←▼R. Becerra

67'▲F. Arismendi←▼D. Roca

67'▲D. Saavedra←▼A. Mamani

72'▲J. Ribera←▼J. Bejarano

72'▲A. Medina←▼D. Calero

Gualberto Villarroel SJ substitutes

16Arismendi12Ribera10Galindo25Rivas20Cabrera26Saavedra30Vasquez17Roca6Serrano31Bustos3Villamil19Medina

Manager: Facundo Biondi

59'▲E. Paniagua←▼J. Vedia

59'▲Paulo Henrique←▼J. Rivas

59'▲M. Salazar←▼M. Quiroga

67'▲J. Mena←▼L. Vaca

75'▲R. Ardaya←▼A. Bejarano

ABB substitutes

34Gutierrez15Mena22Anez25Galindo27Concha14Jemio20Paniagua42Ardaya12Pereira35Henrique16Salazar4Espinoza

Primera División: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1–1 ABB

Gualberto Villarroel SJ and ABB drew 1-1 in Primera División on April 26, 2025.

Goals: J. Lopez (80'), J. Ramallo (81' o.g.).

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs ABB — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1–1 ABB