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Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca — Liga MX 2021

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
Preview
01:07
Toluca
Toluca
7/19/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Akron
Big match
44%
Guadalajara Chivas
model favours
44%26%31%

Guadalajara Chivas win just 39% against the top half (vs 72% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas44%
×Draw26%
Toluca31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.48
Toluca
1.20

Guadalajara Chivas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 98 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.53
Toluca
1.40

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.00
Toluca
1.42

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
69%
Guadalajara Chivas or Toluca
74%
Draw or Toluca
56%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
21%
Toluca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
77%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
43%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
19%
Toluca 1+ goals
70%
Toluca 2+ goals
34%
Toluca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
59%
Toluca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 96 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.42 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.53 + Toluca defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Toluca attack 1.40 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
44%
level
26%
Toluca scores more
31%

Guadalajara Chivas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Toluca win just 43% against the top half (vs 73% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Chivas
DLDW
Toluca
DLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guadalajara Chivas face Toluca (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Guadalajara Chivas hosting Toluca. Match starts July 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Guadalajara Chivas host Toluca at Estadio Akron.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.