Guadalajara Chivas 1–2 Monarcas: Result & Stats

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Monarcas

C. Salcido 62'

C. Salcido 90+4' (OG)

R. Ruidíaz 51' (pen)

10/15/2017

Liga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Akron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas44%

×Draw26%

Monarcas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.19

Guadalajara Chivas

1.47

Monarcas

1.19

Guadalajara Chivas creates 24% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 49 away

1.41

creates per match

1.33

1.05

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.41

Monarcas

1.33

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.05

Monarcas

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

69%

Guadalajara Chivas or Monarcas

74%

Draw or Monarcas

56%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

21%

Monarcas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

77%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

43%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

18%

Monarcas 1+ goals

70%

Monarcas 2+ goals

33%

Monarcas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

59%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.05 · 150 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.41 + Monarcas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

Monarcas attack 1.33 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

44%

level

26%

Monarcas scores more

31%

Guadalajara Chivas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. López

Guadalajara Chivas · M

8.2

Match Events

50'

Rodolfo Cota

51'

R. RuidíazPenalty

52'

Á. Zaldívar← O. Pineda

59'

I. Brizuela← Edwin Hernández

59'

C. Fierro← J. Sánchez

62'

C. Salcido↳ C. Cisneros

64'

R. Vilchis← G. Lezcano

76'

José Juan Vázquez

76'

J. Cuero← A. Sepúlveda

81'

Rodolfo Pizarro

82'

Diego Valdés

82'

Gabriel Achilier

89'

J. Rodríguez← R. Millar

90+4'

C. SalcidoOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuadalajaraMonarcas

Overview

57%Possession43%

24Total Shots11

10Corners5

13Fouls8

Shots

24Total Shots11

9On Target5

10Off Target5

5Blocked1

14Inside Box7

10Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

380Total Passes283

312Accurate Passes215

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

13Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1