Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 Monarcas: Result & Stats

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Monarcas

I. Brizuela 53'

A. Pulido 36' (pen)

R. Vilchis 90+2'

10/2/2016

Liga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Akron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas44%

×Draw26%

Monarcas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.16

Guadalajara Chivas

1.48

Monarcas

1.16

Guadalajara Chivas creates 28% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 52 away

1.41

creates per match

1.27

1.05

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.41

Monarcas

1.27

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.05

Monarcas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

70%

Guadalajara Chivas or Monarcas

74%

Draw or Monarcas

56%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

22%

Monarcas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

77%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

43%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

19%

Monarcas 1+ goals

69%

Monarcas 2+ goals

32%

Monarcas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

60%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.05 · 150 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.41 + Monarcas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Monarcas attack 1.27 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

44%

level

26%

Monarcas scores more

30%

Guadalajara Chivas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

I. Brizuela

Guadalajara Chivas · M

8.3

Match Events

36'

A. PulidoPenalty

46'

L. Rey← R. Ruidíaz

53'

I. Brizuela

67'

J. Vázquez← O. Pineda

67'

C. Peña← Á. Zaldívar

67'

J. Zárate← D. Valdés

72'

Emanuel Loeschbor

74'

R. Vilchis← C. Penilla

76'

Carlos Cisneros

78'

N. Calderón← A. Pulido

90+2'

R. Vilchis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuadalajaraMonarcas

Overview

62%Possession38%

20Total Shots8

6Corners2

13Fouls7

Shots

20Total Shots8

10On Target1

5Off Target6

5Blocked1

10Inside Box2

10Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

527Total Passes322

461Accurate Passes252

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1