Guadalajara Chivas 4–1 Atlas: Result & Stats

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Atlas

A. Gonzalez 51', 29', 10'

L. Romo 27'

M. E. Garcia 63'

10/26/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Akron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas48%

×Draw26%

Atlas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchAtlas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

Guadalajara Chivas

1.52

Atlas

1.04

Guadalajara Chivas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.42

creates per match

1.00

1.09

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.42

Atlas

1.00

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.09

Atlas

1.61

+0.83scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.83scores more

Atlas+0.08on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Atlas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

74%

Guadalajara Chivas or Atlas

74%

Draw or Atlas

52%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

24%

Atlas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

78%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

45%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

20%

Atlas 1+ goals

65%

Atlas 2+ goals

28%

Atlas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

65%

Atlas (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.42 + Atlas defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atlas attack 1.00 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

48%

level

26%

Atlas scores more

26%

Guadalajara Chivas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

A. Gonzalez

Guadalajara Chivas · F

10.0

Match Events

10'

A. Gonzalez↳ E. Alvarez

26'

Paulo Ramírez

27'

L. Romo

29'

A. Gonzalez

51'

A. Gonzalez↳ R. Alvarado

56'

Diego GonzálezPenalty cancelled

57'

T. Wilke← A. Gonzalez

63'

M. E. Garcia↳ U. Djurdjevic

65'

Gaddi Aguirre

66'

Y. Padilla← S. Sandoval

74'

M. Tapias← O. Govea

74'

E. Gutierrez← R. Alvarado

74'

D. Aguirre← E. Alvarez

78'

M. Coccaro← A. Rocha

78'

E. Aguirre← D. Gonzalez

87'

V. H. Rios De Alba← P. Ramirez

87'

A. Gonzalez← M. E. Garcia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuadalajaraAtlas

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots10

5Corners4

11Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots10

5On Target4

6Off Target3

3Blocked3

10Inside Box3

4Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

473Total Passes424

388Accurate Passes346

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2