Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas: Result & Stats

Atlas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Guadalajara Chivas

U. Đurđević 35'

M. Nervo 31' (OG)

4/20/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atlas29%

×Draw26%

Guadalajara Chivas45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlasExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.43

Atlas

1.09

Guadalajara Chivas

1.43

Guadalajara Chivas creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.06

creates per match

1.48

1.37

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Atlas

1.06

Guadalajara Chivas

1.48

allows per match

Atlas

1.37

Guadalajara Chivas

1.13

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Atlas+0.05on par

Guadalajara Chivas-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlas or draw

55%

Atlas or Guadalajara Chivas

74%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

71%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+

11%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals

66%

Atlas 2+ goals

30%

Atlas 3+ goals

10%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

76%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

42%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)

39%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.06 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.48 + Atlas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlas scores more

29%

level

26%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

45%

Guadalajara Chivas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

58

H. Camberos

Guadalajara Chivas · M

8.5

Match Events

11'

E. Gutierrez

13'

J. Marquez

18'

M. Chavez Garcia

22'

M. Gomez

31'

M. NervoOwn goal

35'

U. Đurđević↳ D. González

54'

T. Wilke

61'

A. Rocha

67'

R. Martinez

68'

G. del Prete← D. González

72'

F. Beltrán← É. Gutiérrez

72'

74'

80'

85'

85'

M. Cóccaro← E. Aguirre

90'

P. Ramírez← J. Márquez

90'

I. Brizuela← M. Gómez

90'

C. Cowell← R. Alvarado

90+4'

A. González← H. Camberos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtlasGuadalajara

Overview

49%Possession51%

19Total Shots20

4Corners5

12Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots20

5On Target6

7Off Target8

7Blocked6

9Inside Box8

10Outside Box12

Passing

49%Possession51%

338Total Passes356

291Accurate Passes300

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

4Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2