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Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
1/4/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlas25%
×Draw32%
Guadalajara Chivas43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
0.75
Guadalajara Chivas
1.08

Guadalajara Chivas creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.33
Guadalajara Chivas
0.50

allows per match

Atlas
1.67
Guadalajara Chivas
0.17

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
57%
Atlas or Guadalajara Chivas
68%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
75%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
8%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
53%
Atlas 2+ goals
17%
Atlas 3+ goals
4%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
66%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
29%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
37%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.33 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Guadalajara Chivas attack 0.50 + Atlas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlas scores more
25%
level
32%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
43%

Guadalajara Chivas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Atlas
Guadalajara
Diego Cocca
Manager: Diego Cocca
Gabriel Milito
Manager: Gabriel Milito

Friendlies Clubs: Atlas 0–0 Guadalajara Chivas

Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 4, 2026.