Groningen 0–0 Emmen: Result & Stats

Groningen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Emmen

10/23/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 10Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen54%

×Draw24%

Emmen22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GroningenExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.02

Groningen

1.75

Emmen

1.02

Groningen creates 72% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

2.00

creates per match

1.30

0.74

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Groningen

2.00

Emmen

1.30

allows per match

Groningen

0.74

Emmen

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par

Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Groningen or draw

78%

Groningen or Emmen

76%

Draw or Emmen

46%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+

30%

Emmen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals

83%

Groningen 2+ goals

52%

Groningen 3+ goals

25%

Emmen 1+ goals

64%

Emmen 2+ goals

27%

Emmen 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)

71%

Emmen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + Emmen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Emmen attack 1.30 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Groningen scores more

54%

level

24%

Emmen scores more

22%

Groningen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Heylen

Emmen · D

8.0

Match Events

59'

Jeff Hardeveld

65'

Radinio Balker

73'

T. van Bergen← K. Lien

73'

P. Parzyszek← Rui Mendes

73'

P. Brouwer← D. Ubbink

73'

M. te Wierik← R. Schouten

79'

L. van Gelderen← M. Rente

83'

N. Emeran← W. Prins

83'

K. van Veen← R. Postema

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GroningenEmmen

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots12

6Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots12

1On Target1

7Off Target7

6Blocked4

8Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

401Total Passes392

298Accurate Passes252

74%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides4