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Groningen vs Emmen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Groningen
Groningen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Emmen
Emmen
R. Oratmangoen 39'
P. Parzyszek 6'
7/29/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark Boerbos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Groningen36%
×Draw23%
Emmen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
1.63
Emmen
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Groningen
1.38
Emmen
1.75

allows per match

Groningen
1.75
Emmen
1.88

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
59%
Groningen or Emmen
77%
Draw or Emmen
64%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
18%
Emmen wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
80%
Groningen 2+ goals
48%
Groningen 3+ goals
22%
Emmen 1+ goals
83%
Emmen 2+ goals
52%
Emmen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
47%
Emmen (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 1.38 + Emmen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Emmen attack 1.75 + Groningen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Groningen scores more
36%
level
23%
Emmen scores more
41%

Emmen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
P. Parzyszek
37'
L. Duarte← J. Schreuders
39'
R. Oratmangoen
60'
M. Rente← T. Blokzijl
70'
D. Vos← J. Dirksen
70'
M. Kieftenbeld← L. Bernadou
70'
L. Valente← T. Suslov
70'
R. Oratmangoen← F. Turay
70'
F. Kruger← F. Kruger
81'
K. van Veen← K. Slor
81'
L. Van Gelderen← J. van Kaam
85'
P. Parzyszek← J. Huijzer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Groningen vs Emmen

Groningen and Emmen drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 29, 2023.

Goals: P. Parzyszek (6'), R. Oratmangoen (39').

The match was played at Sportpark Boerbos in Rolde.