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Emmen vs Groningen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Groningen
Groningen
R. Postema 62'
L. Bacuna 18'
T. van Bergen 13'
4/1/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 22De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Emmen34%
×Draw25%
Groningen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.33
Groningen
1.50

Groningen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.82
Groningen
1.74

allows per match

Emmen
1.25
Groningen
0.84

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
Groningen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
59%
Emmen or Groningen
75%
Draw or Groningen
66%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
15%
Groningen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
74%
Emmen 2+ goals
38%
Emmen 3+ goals
15%
Groningen 1+ goals
78%
Groningen 2+ goals
44%
Groningen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
45%
Groningen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Groningen away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + Groningen defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.33

Groningen attack 1.74 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Emmen scores more
34%
level
25%
Groningen scores more
41%

Groningen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
L. ValenteGroningenGroningen · M
8.7

Match Events

10'
P. Brouwer← R. Schouten
13'
T. van Bergen↳ Laros Duarte
18'
L. Bacuna↳ L. Valente
23'
Julius Dirksen
29'
Marvin Peersman
46'
D. Ubbink← B. Scholte
62'
R. Postema↳ L. Valente
64'
P. Parzyszek← M. Pouwels
64'
J. Konings← M. Kieftenbeld
71'
Rui Mendes← J. Schreuders
71'
J. Pelupessy← Laros Duarte
74'
Jorrit Smeets
77'
M. Heylen← P. Brouwer
78'
N. Emeran← R. Postema
78'
T. Blokzijl← M. Peersman
84'
K. Lien← T. van Bergen

Possession

47%Emmen

Shots

16Emmen

Pass accuracy

50%Emmen

Statistics

EmmenGroningen
Overview
47%Possession53%
16Total Shots18
7Corners7
18Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots18
4On Target6
8Off Target4
4Blocked8
12Inside Box11
4Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
369Total Passes431
259Accurate Passes307
70%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Eerste Divisie: Emmen 0–3 Groningen

Groningen beat Emmen 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 1, 2024.

Goals: T. van Bergen (13'), L. Bacuna (18'), R. Postema (62').

Groningen controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 16.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.