Grindavik vs Throttur Reykjavik

Grindavik

Preview

18:00

Throttur Reykjavik

8/13/2026

1. Deild · Round 18

Big match

49%

Throttur Reykjavik

model favours

30%22%49%

Throttur Reykjavik score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2

likely score

69%

over 2.5 goals

68%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Grindavik30%

×Draw22%

Throttur Reykjavik49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrindavikExpected goals in this matchThrottur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.02

Grindavik

1.54

Throttur Reykjavik

2.02

Throttur Reykjavik creates 31% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

1.50

creates per match

1.90

2.14

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Grindavik

1.50

Throttur Reykjavik

1.90

allows per match

Grindavik

2.14

Throttur Reykjavik

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

Throttur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw

51%

Grindavik or Throttur Reykjavik

78%

Draw or Throttur Reykjavik

70%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+

14%

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals

79%

Grindavik 2+ goals

45%

Grindavik 3+ goals

20%

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

87%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

60%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)

38%

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Throttur Reykjavik away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Throttur Reykjavik attack 1.90 + Grindavik defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grindavik scores more

30%

level

22%

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

49%

Throttur Reykjavik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 91% of Throttur Reykjavik’s matches
Grindavik score first in only 26% of matches
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
Their last 5 meetings averaged 4 goals
22% of Grindavik’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Grindavik

WLDDD

Reykjavik

DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff