Grindavik 1–0 Fylkir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Grindavik

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fylkir

K. Viðarsson 57'

5/28/2022

1. Deild · Round 4Mustad völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Grindavik28%

×Draw21%

Fylkir50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrindavikExpected goals in this matchFylkir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.07

Grindavik

1.52

Fylkir

2.07

Fylkir creates 36% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

1.50

creates per match

2.00

2.14

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Grindavik

1.50

Fylkir

2.00

allows per match

Grindavik

2.14

Fylkir

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par

Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

Fylkir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw

50%

Grindavik or Fylkir

79%

Draw or Fylkir

72%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+

13%

Fylkir wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals

78%

Grindavik 2+ goals

45%

Grindavik 3+ goals

20%

Fylkir 1+ goals

87%

Fylkir 2+ goals

61%

Fylkir 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)

36%

Fylkir (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Fylkir defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fylkir attack 2.00 + Grindavik defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Grindavik scores more

28%

level

21%

Fylkir scores more

50%

Fylkir at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

D. Gunnarsson

46'

B. Garðarsson← N. Gunnarsson

57'

K. Viðarsson

62'

K. Turudija

75'

A. Ásþórsson← B. Eyþórsson

79'

N. Latinovic← F. Jónsson

79'

U. Ingvarsson← Á. Ásgeirsson

84'

M. Helgason← K. Viðarsson

90'

A. Jóhannsson← D. Gunnarsson

Grindavik

Fylkir

Manager: A. Jóhannsson

79'▲N. Latinovic←▼F. Jónsson

84'▲M. Helgason←▼K. Viðarsson

90'▲A. Jóhannsson←▼D. Gunnarsson

Grindavik substitutes

LatinovicHelgasonJóhannssonZebaEdwards-JohnMajewskiHasecic

Manager: R. Sigmundsson

46'▲B. Garðarsson←▼N. Gunnarsson

75'▲A. Ásþórsson←▼B. Eyþórsson

79'▲U. Ingvarsson←▼Á. Ásgeirsson

Fylkir substitutes

GarðarssonÁsþórssonIngvarssonÞorvarðarsonGuðbjörnssonIngasonÞorsteinsson