Fylkir 5–2 Grindavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Fylkir

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Grindavik

A. Jónsson 88'

B. Garðarsson 67'

B. Eyþórsson 64'

E. Ásmundsson 51', 5'

G. Lýðsson 24' (pen)

K. Edwards-John 12'

8/5/2022

1. Deild · Round 15Würth völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Fylkir54%

×Draw20%

Grindavik25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FylkirExpected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.48

Fylkir

2.23

Grindavik

1.48

Fylkir creates 51% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

2.09

creates per match

1.50

1.45

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Fylkir

2.09

Grindavik

1.50

allows per match

Fylkir

1.45

Grindavik

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw

75%

Fylkir or Grindavik

80%

Draw or Grindavik

46%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+

33%

Grindavik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals

89%

Fylkir 2+ goals

65%

Fylkir 3+ goals

38%

Grindavik 1+ goals

77%

Grindavik 2+ goals

43%

Grindavik 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)

68%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 2.09 + Grindavik defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.23

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Fylkir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fylkir scores more

54%

level

20%

Grindavik scores more

25%

Fylkir at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

E. Ásmundsson

12'

K. Edwards-John

23'

O. Stefansson

24'

G. LýðssonPenalty

51'

E. Ásmundsson

63'

Ó. Borgþórsson← E. Ásmundsson

64'

B. Eyþórsson

67'

B. Garðarsson

69'

F. Jónsson← D. Gunnarsson

69'

Juanra← K. Edwards-John

69'

K. Viðarsson← J. Zeba

75'

F. Brynjólfsson← M. Laursen

75'

Ómar Stefánsson← B. Garðarsson

75'

M. Helgason← N. Latinovic

79'

Á. Ásgeirsson← Þ. Hafþórsson

79'

D. Ólafsson← B. Eyþórsson

86'

H. McShane← K. Turudija

88'

A. Jónsson

Fylkir

Grindavik

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Ásmundsso

▼

Hafþórsso

Ingvarsso

⚽

▼

Garðarsso

⚽

▼

Eyþórsson

▼

Laursen

Manager: R. Sigmundsson

63'▲Ó. Borgþórsson←▼E. Ásmundsson

75'▲F. Brynjólfsson←▼M. Laursen

75'▲Ómar Stefánsson←▼B. Garðarsson

79'▲Á. Ásgeirsson←▼Þ. Hafþórsson

79'▲D. Ólafsson←▼B. Eyþórsson

Fylkir substitutes

BorgþórssonBrynjólfssonStefánssonÁsgeirssonÓlafssonIngasonÞorsteinsson

Manager: A. Jóhannsson

69'▲F. Jónsson←▼D. Gunnarsson

69'▲Juanra←▼K. Edwards-John

69'▲K. Viðarsson←▼J. Zeba

75'▲M. Helgason←▼N. Latinovic

86'▲H. McShane←▼K. Turudija

Grindavik substitutes

JónssonJuanraViðarssonHelgasonMcShaneMajewskiÁsgeirsson