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Fylkir vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Fylkir
Fylkir
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Grindavik
Grindavik
Þóroddur Víkingsson 20'
Á. Finnbogason 72'
6/13/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 8tekk VÖLLURINN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fylkir50%
×Draw22%
Grindavik28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylkir
2.00
Grindavik
1.46

Fylkir creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

creates per match

Fylkir
1.78
Grindavik
1.58

allows per match

Fylkir
1.33
Grindavik
2.23

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par
Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Grindavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw
72%
Fylkir or Grindavik
78%
Draw or Grindavik
50%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+
29%
Grindavik wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals
86%
Fylkir 2+ goals
59%
Fylkir 3+ goals
32%
Grindavik 1+ goals
77%
Grindavik 2+ goals
43%
Grindavik 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)
64%
Grindavik (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 1.78 + Grindavik defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.00

Grindavik attack 1.58 + Fylkir defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fylkir scores more
50%
level
22%
Grindavik scores more
28%

Fylkir at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Þóroddur Víkingsson
56'
70'
72'
Á. Finnbogason
81'
S. Gudmundsson
90+2'
90+2'
A. Heimisson
Fylkir
Grindavik
A. Guðnason
Manager: A. Guðnason
H. Hródmarsson
Manager: H. Hródmarsson

1. Deild: Fylkir 1–1 Grindavik

Fylkir and Grindavik drew 1-1 in 1. Deild on June 13, 2025.

Goals: Þóroddur Víkingsson (20'), Á. Finnbogason (72').

The match was played at tekk VÖLLURINN in Reykjavík.