Greuther Fürth II 1–5 Würzburger Kickers

Greuther Fürth II

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Würzburger Kickers

4/26/2026

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 31Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Greuther Fürth II23%

×Draw23%

Würzburger Kickers53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth IIExpected goals in this matchWürzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.78

Greuther Fürth II

1.09

Würzburger Kickers

1.78

Würzburger Kickers creates 63% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 54 away

1.42

creates per match

2.11

1.45

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Greuther Fürth II

1.42

Würzburger Kickers

2.11

allows per match

Greuther Fürth II

1.45

Würzburger Kickers

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth II ↓

Würzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth II or draw

47%

Greuther Fürth II or Würzburger Kickers

77%

Draw or Würzburger Kickers

77%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+

9%

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals

66%

Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals

30%

Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals

10%

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals

83%

Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals

53%

Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)

30%

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

Würzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.42 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.09

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Greuther Fürth II scores more

23%

level

23%

Würzburger Kickers scores more

53%

Würzburger Kickers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff