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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Greuther Fürth II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Greuther Fürth II
Greuther Fürth II
9/9/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 9AKON ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers63%
×Draw20%
Greuther Fürth II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.19
Greuther Fürth II
1.04

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 111% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 87 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.76
Greuther Fürth II
1.33

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76
Greuther Fürth II
1.62

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Greuther Fürth II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
83%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Greuther Fürth II
80%
Draw or Greuther Fürth II
37%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
40%
Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
89%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
64%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
37%
Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals
65%
Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals
28%
Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
79%
Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Greuther Fürth II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.19

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.33 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
63%
level
20%
Greuther Fürth II scores more
17%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2 – 1 Greuther Fürth II

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Greuther Fürth II 2-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at AKON ARENA in Würzburg.