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Greuther Fürth II vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Greuther Fürth II
Greuther Fürth II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
5/14/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 36Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Greuther Fürth II23%
×Draw23%
FC Wurzburger Kickers53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greuther Fürth II
1.09
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.78

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 63% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 54 away

creates per match

Greuther Fürth II
1.42
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.11

allows per match

Greuther Fürth II
1.45
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76

finishing

Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth II ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth II or draw
47%
Greuther Fürth II or FC Wurzburger Kickers
77%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
77%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+
9%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals
66%
Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals
30%
Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals
10%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
83%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
53%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)
30%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.42 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.09

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Greuther Fürth II scores more
23%
level
23%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
53%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Greuther Fürth II vs FC Wurzburger Kickers

Greuther Fürth II beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Fürth.