Grenoble 3–0 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats

Grenoble

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Clermont Foot

P. Meïssa Ba 84'

J. Benet 62'

D. Rigo 45+1'

9/27/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Grenoble40%

×Draw29%

Clermont Foot30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrenobleExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.97

Grenoble

1.17

Clermont Foot

0.97

Grenoble creates 21% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 98 away

1.18

creates per match

0.99

0.95

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Grenoble

1.18

Clermont Foot

0.99

allows per match

Grenoble

0.95

Clermont Foot

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw

70%

Grenoble or Clermont Foot

71%

Draw or Clermont Foot

60%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+

17%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals

69%

Grenoble 2+ goals

33%

Grenoble 3+ goals

11%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

62%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

25%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)

57%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.18 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Grenoble defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grenoble scores more

40%

level

29%

Clermont Foot scores more

30%

Grenoble at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Benet

Grenoble · M

8.2

Match Events

33'

S. Delos← G. Paquiez

40'

Mamady Bangré

45'

Yohann Magnin

45+1'

D. Rigo↳ J. Benet

58'

Massamba Ndiaye

61'

T. Guivarch← F. Diédhiou

62'

O. Diop← M. Bassouamina

62'

J. Benet

68'

J. Olaïtan← A. Kérouédan

68'

L. Joseph← M. Bangré

77'

A. Ackra← Y. Magnin

77'

M. Baaloudj← M. Douane

84'

P. Meïssa Ba↳ L. Joseph

85'

N. Elphege← T. Valls

85'

E. Sylvestre← P. Meïssa Ba

85'

A. Maurer← H. Keïta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrenobleClermont

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots7

5Corners8

8Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots7

5On Target3

3Off Target4

2Blocked0

6Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

369Total Passes487

285Accurate Passes396

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1