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Grenoble vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Grenoble
Grenoble
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
Willy Semedo 90+1' (pen)
M. Bayo 45+2'
J. Allevinah 19'
5/3/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 36Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Grenoble40%
×Draw29%
Clermont Foot30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grenoble
1.17
Clermont Foot
0.97

Grenoble creates 21% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 98 away

creates per match

Grenoble
1.18
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

Grenoble
0.95
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw
70%
Grenoble or Clermont Foot
71%
Draw or Clermont Foot
60%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+
17%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals
69%
Grenoble 2+ goals
33%
Grenoble 3+ goals
11%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
62%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
25%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)
57%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.18 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Grenoble defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grenoble scores more
40%
level
29%
Clermont Foot scores more
30%

Grenoble at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. AllevinahClermont FootClermont Foot · M
8.2

Match Events

5'
Jordy Gaspar
19'
J. Allevinah↳ J. Gastien
26'
D. Henen← M. Anani
42'
L. Rajot← J. Iglesias
45+2'
M. Bayo
46'
H. Abou Demba← J. Gaspar
67'
F. Michel← J. Bénet
67'
M. Diallo← Y. Ravet
74'
C. Gomis← J. Dossou
75'
J. Tell← J. Allevinah
82'
K. Tapoko← A. Belmonte
85'
Florent Ogier
87'
D. Trichard← J. Berthomier
90'
Lorenzo Rajot
90+1'
Willy SemedoPenalty

Possession

48%Grenoble

Shots

11Grenoble

Pass accuracy

50%Grenoble

Statistics

GrenobleClermont
Overview
48%Possession52%
11Total Shots11
6Corners6
8Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots11
3On Target6
6Off Target4
2Blocked1
7Inside Box7
4Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
458Total Passes496
375Accurate Passes413
82%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Ligue 2: Grenoble 1–2 Clermont Foot

Clermont Foot beat Grenoble 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 3, 2021.

Goals: J. Allevinah (19'), M. Bayo (45+2'), Willy Semedo (90+1' pen).

Clermont Foot controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade des Alpes in Grenoble.