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Gremio vs Ceara — Serie A 2026

Gremio
Gremio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ceara
Ceara
Ferreira 45+1'
Diego Souza 43'
9/12/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 20Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Gremio46%
×Draw27%
Ceara27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio
1.43
Ceara
1.03

Gremio creates 39% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 25 away

creates per match

Gremio
1.62
Ceara
0.92

allows per match

Gremio
1.15
Ceara
1.24

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par
Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Ceara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gremio or draw
73%
Gremio or Ceara
73%
Draw or Ceara
54%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+
22%
Ceara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals
76%
Gremio 2+ goals
42%
Gremio 3+ goals
17%
Ceara 1+ goals
64%
Ceara 2+ goals
28%
Ceara 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)
63%
Ceara (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.62 + Ceara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ceara attack 0.92 + Gremio defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gremio scores more
46%
level
27%
Ceara scores more
27%

Gremio at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35
VandersonGremioGremio · D
7.9

Match Events

43'
Diego Souza↳ Alisson
45+1'
Ferreira
62'
Cleber← Jael
63'
Marlon← Fernando Sobral
63'
Erick← S. Mendoza
70'
M. Villasanti← Jhonata Robert
73'
M. Borja← Diego Souza
73'
Léo Pereira← Ferreira
79'
Rick← Lima
81'
Éverton← Alisson
81'
Cortez← Rafinha
88'
Y. González← Vina

Possession

41%Gremio

Shots

13Gremio

Pass accuracy

49%Gremio

Statistics

GremioCeara
Overview
41%Possession59%
13Total Shots7
5Corners4
22Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots7
3On Target1
8Off Target4
2Blocked2
7Inside Box4
6Outside Box3
Passing
41%Possession59%
350Total Passes502
281Accurate Passes420
80%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
22Fouls9

Gremio 2 – 0 Ceara

Gremio beat Ceara 2-0 in Serie A on September 12, 2021.

Goals: Diego Souza (43'), Ferreira (45+1').

Ceara controlled possession (59%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.