Ceara 2–0 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Ceara

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gremio

Matheus Araujo 90'

Pedro Raul 26' (pen)

4/5/2025

Serie A · Round 2Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ceara38%

×Draw29%

Gremio33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.08

Ceara

1.19

Gremio

1.08

Ceara creates 10% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 47 away

0.96

creates per match

1.11

1.04

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Ceara

0.96

Gremio

1.11

allows per match

Ceara

1.04

Gremio

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

67%

Ceara or Gremio

71%

Draw or Gremio

62%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

16%

Gremio wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

70%

Ceara 2+ goals

33%

Ceara 3+ goals

12%

Gremio 1+ goals

66%

Gremio 2+ goals

29%

Gremio 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

54%

Gremio (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.43 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 0.96 + Gremio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gremio attack 1.11 + Ceara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ceara scores more

38%

level

29%

Gremio scores more

33%

Ceara at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

Fabiano

Ceara · D

7.7

Match Events

16'

Francis Amuzu

26'

Pedro RaulPenalty

41'

Matías Arezo

46'

Lourenco← Fernando Sobral

46'

F. Cristaldo← Camilo Reijers

54'

Igor Serrote

58'

A. Martinez← Fernandinho

63'

Joao Pedro← C. Pavon

63'

A. Aravena← Igor Serrote

67'

Matheus Araujo← Lucas Mugni

73'

Matheus Bahia

81'

M. Monsalve← Edenilson

87'

Andre Henrique← F. Amuzu

90+4'

Nicolas← Pedro Raul

90'

Aylon← A. Galeano

90'

Matheus Araujo↳ A. Martinez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaGremio

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots12

1.42Expected Goals (xG)0.81

3Corners9

9Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots12

6On Target3

5Off Target5

1Blocked4

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

39%Possession61%

237Total Passes383

176Accurate Passes314

74%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.28Goals Prevented0.28

Discipline

9Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3

Serie A: Ceara 2–0 Gremio

Ceara beat Gremio 2-0 in Serie A on April 5, 2025.

Goals: Pedro Raul (26' pen), Matheus Araujo (90').

Gremio controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza.

Ceara vs Gremio — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Ceara 2–0 Gremio