Gremio 4–2 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Ceara

D. Churín 70'

Diego Souza 40'

Pepê 33'

Jean Pyerre 20'

Tiago Pagnussat 90+1'

Kelvyn 37'

11/14/2020

Serie A · Round 21Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Gremio46%

×Draw27%

Ceara27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.03

Gremio

1.43

Ceara

1.03

Gremio creates 39% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 25 away

1.62

creates per match

0.92

1.15

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Gremio

1.62

Ceara

0.92

allows per match

Gremio

1.15

Ceara

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

73%

Gremio or Ceara

73%

Draw or Ceara

54%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

22%

Ceara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

76%

Gremio 2+ goals

42%

Gremio 3+ goals

17%

Ceara 1+ goals

64%

Ceara 2+ goals

28%

Ceara 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

63%

Ceara (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.62 + Ceara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ceara attack 0.92 + Gremio defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gremio scores more

46%

level

27%

Ceara scores more

27%

Gremio at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jean Pyerre

Gremio · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

David Braz← Paulo Miranda

20'

Jean Pyerre

33'

Pepê↳ Luiz Fernando

37'

Kelvyn↳ Cleber

40'

Diego Souza↳ Luiz Fernando

46'

Charles← Ricardinho

61'

Vitor Jacaré← Mateus Gonçalves

66'

Wescley← Kelvyn

70'

D. Churín← Diego Souza

70'

Éverton← Pepê

70'

D. Churín↳ Jean Pyerre

77'

Lucas Silva← Darlan Mendes

77'

Thaciano← Matheus Henrique

79'

Pedro← Fabinho

79'

83'

87'

90'

90+1'

Tiago Pagnussat↳ Wescley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioCeara

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots11

3Corners4

8Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots11

7On Target3

5Off Target6

4Blocked2

8Inside Box7

8Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

743Total Passes473

668Accurate Passes402

90%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Serie A: Gremio 4–2 Ceara

Gremio beat Ceara 4-2 in Serie A on November 14, 2020.

Goals: Jean Pyerre (20'), Pepê (33'), Kelvyn (37'), Diego Souza (40'), D. Churín (70'), Tiago Pagnussat (90+1').

Gremio controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.

Gremio vs Ceara — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Gremio 4–2 Ceara