Gremio 1–1 Botafogo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo

Tiago Volpi 90' (pen)

Cuiabano 53'

9/24/2025

Serie A · Round 16Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Gremio49%

×Draw25%

Botafogo26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.07

Gremio

1.56

Botafogo

1.07

Gremio creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

1.55

creates per match

0.96

1.19

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Gremio

1.55

Botafogo

0.96

allows per match

Gremio

1.19

Botafogo

1.57

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Gremio+0.10scores more

Botafogo+0.48scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

74%

Gremio or Botafogo

75%

Draw or Botafogo

51%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

25%

Botafogo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

79%

Gremio 2+ goals

46%

Gremio 3+ goals

21%

Botafogo 1+ goals

66%

Botafogo 2+ goals

29%

Botafogo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

65%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Botafogo away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.55 + Botafogo defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Botafogo attack 0.96 + Gremio defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gremio scores more

49%

level

25%

Botafogo scores more

26%

Gremio at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Marlon

Gremio · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

Cuiabano← Alex Telles

33'

Marcos Rocha

46'

Alysson← C. Pavon

46'

Alex Santana← E. Noriega

53'

Cuiabano↳ Marlon Freitas

63'

M. Ponte← Jeffinho

67'

C. Olivera← Edenilson

70'

F. Cristaldo← Willian

78'

Jardiel← Andre Henrique

83'

Marlon Freitas

86'

MarlonPenalty confirmed

88'

Alexander Barboza

90+3'

K. Barria← Artur

90'

Tiago VolpiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioBotafogo

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots12

1.82Expected Goals (xG)1.18

7Corners1

7Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots12

4On Target4

9Off Target6

4Blocked2

8Inside Box10

9Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

424Total Passes516

363Accurate Passes456

86%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

1.31Goals Prevented1.31

Discipline

7Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Serie A: Gremio 1–1 Botafogo

Gremio and Botafogo drew 1-1 in Serie A on September 24, 2025.

Goals: Cuiabano (53'), Tiago Volpi (90' pen).

Botafogo controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre.

Gremio vs Botafogo — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Gremio 1–1 Botafogo