Gremio 1–2 Botafogo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Botafogo

Gustavo Nunes 21'

Júnior Santos 57'

Cuiabano 10'

6/16/2024

Serie A · Round 9Estádio Kleber José de Andrade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Gremio51%

×Draw26%

Botafogo24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.98

Gremio

1.55

Botafogo

0.98

Gremio creates 58% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

1.55

creates per match

0.94

1.02

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Gremio

1.55

Botafogo

0.94

allows per match

Gremio

1.02

Botafogo

1.55

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

Gremio+0.13scores more

Botafogo+0.53scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

76%

Gremio or Botafogo

74%

Draw or Botafogo

49%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

26%

Botafogo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

79%

Gremio 2+ goals

46%

Gremio 3+ goals

20%

Botafogo 1+ goals

62%

Botafogo 2+ goals

26%

Botafogo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

68%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 22 matches

Botafogo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.55 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.55 + Botafogo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.55

Botafogo attack 0.94 + Gremio defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gremio scores more

51%

level

26%

Botafogo scores more

24%

Gremio at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Marlon Freitas

Botafogo · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

Cuiabano↳ Marlon Freitas

21'

Gustavo Nunes

39'

Gustavo Nunes

45'

Gregore

46'

Yarlen← Gregore

57'

Júnior Santos↳ Luiz Henrique

62'

D. Hernández← Ó. Romero

62'

Danilo Barbosa← Luiz Henrique

70'

Everton Galdino← C. Pavón

70'

Nathan Fernandes← João Pedro

74'

Eduardo← Tchê Tchê

78'

Felipe Carballo

78'

Du Queiroz← Dodi

79'

Edenílson← F. Carballo

81'

81'

83'

84'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioBotafogo

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots14

1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.70

7Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots14

4On Target5

5Off Target5

6Blocked4

8Inside Box8

7Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

406Total Passes504

323Accurate Passes425

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

0.47Goals Prevented0.47

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Gremio vs Botafogo

Botafogo beat Gremio 2-1 in Serie A on June 16, 2024.

Goals: Cuiabano (10'), Gustavo Nunes (21'), Júnior Santos (57').

Botafogo controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade in Cariacica, Espírito Santo.

Gremio vs Botafogo — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Gremio vs Botafogo