Botafogo 3–2 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Botafogo

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Gremio

Marcal 83'

Artur 19'

Cuiabano 15'

Carlos Vinicius 90'

Andre Henrique 49'

11/22/2025

Serie A · Round 35Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Botafogo54%

×Draw24%

Gremio22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BotafogoExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.99

Botafogo

1.71

Gremio

0.99

Botafogo creates 73% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 24 away

1.55

creates per match

0.93

1.05

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Botafogo

1.55

Gremio

0.93

allows per match

Botafogo

1.05

Gremio

1.87

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Botafogo+0.45scores more

Gremio+0.03on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw

78%

Botafogo or Gremio

76%

Draw or Gremio

46%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+

30%

Gremio wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals

82%

Botafogo 2+ goals

51%

Botafogo 3+ goals

24%

Gremio 1+ goals

63%

Gremio 2+ goals

26%

Gremio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)

71%

Gremio (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.05 · 18 matches

Gremio away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.87 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 1.55 + Gremio defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gremio attack 0.93 + Botafogo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Botafogo scores more

54%

level

24%

Gremio scores more

22%

Botafogo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Pavon

Gremio · F

8.3

Match Events

15'

Cuiabano

19'

Artur↳ Danilo

27'

Newton← Danilo

46'

C. Pavon← Alysson

46'

F. Cristaldo← Lucas Esteves

49'

Andre Henrique↳ C. Pavon

50'

Erick Noriega

55'

J. Barrera← J. Correa

55'

Arthur Cabral← K. Barria

59'

Dodi

65'

Jefferson SavarinoPenalty cancelled

66'

A. Aravena← Edenilson

70'

Marlon

72'

Viery← E. Noriega

72'

Carlos Vinicius← Andre Henrique

77'

Vitinho

78'

Gustavo Martins

78'

A. Montoro← J. Savarino

78'

Marcal← Artur

83'

Marcal↳ David Ricardo

90'

Carlos Vinicius↳ C. Pavon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoGremio

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots11

2.19Expected Goals (xG)1.36

7Corners1

17Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots11

7On Target5

4Off Target5

5Blocked1

12Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

440Total Passes550

377Accurate Passes494

86%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.24Goals Prevented-0.24

Discipline

17Fouls8

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Serie A: Botafogo 3–2 Gremio

Botafogo beat Gremio 3-2 in Serie A on November 22, 2025.

Goals: Cuiabano (15'), Artur (19'), Andre Henrique (49'), Marcal (83'), Carlos Vinicius (90').

Gremio controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro.

Botafogo vs Gremio — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Botafogo 3–2 Gremio