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Grasshoppers vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2025

Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
L. Zvonarek 60'
J. Asp 12'
T. Citherlet 90'
S. Sidler 68'
8/24/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Letzigrund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Grasshoppers40%
×Draw22%
FC Winterthur38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshoppers
1.83
FC Winterthur
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Grasshoppers
1.32
FC Winterthur
1.86

allows per match

Grasshoppers
1.74
FC Winterthur
2.35

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.51scores more
FC Winterthur-0.36scores less

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw
62%
Grasshoppers or FC Winterthur
78%
Draw or FC Winterthur
60%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+
21%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals
84%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
54%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
28%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
83%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
54%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
51%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.74 · 12 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.35 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.32 + FC Winterthur defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Winterthur attack 1.86 + Grasshoppers defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grasshoppers scores more
40%
level
22%
FC Winterthur scores more
38%

Grasshoppers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. AspGrasshoppersGrasshoppers · F
8.6

Match Events

12'
J. Asp↳ S. Marques
45'
Dirk Abels
45+1'
Christian GomisPenalty cancelled
46'
T. Citherlet← L. Muhl
53'
N. Muci← Lee Young-Jun
60'
L. Zvonarek↳ S. Marques
64'
R. Buess← A. Jankewitz
68'
S. Sidler↳ D. Ulrich
71'
O. Clemente← L. Plange
75'
F. Rohner← D. Ulrich
79'
L. Giandomenico← S. Stroscio
79'
T. Meyer← L. Zvonarek
79'
T. Veron← J. Asp
80'
Hassane Imourane
85'
E. Maluvunu← S. Sidler
85'
A. Hunziker← T. Golliard
90'
T. Citherlet↳ R. Schneider

Possession

43%Grasshoppers

Shots

16Grasshoppers

Pass accuracy

50%Grasshoppers

Statistics

GrasshoppersFC
Overview
43%Possession57%
16Total Shots18
1.88Expected Goals (xG)1.94
3Corners6
17Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots18
5On Target5
8Off Target8
3Blocked5
12Inside Box14
4Outside Box4
Passing
43%Possession57%
342Total Passes439
219Accurate Passes282
64%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0

Super League: Grasshoppers 2–2 FC Winterthur

Grasshoppers and FC Winterthur drew 2-2 in Super League on August 24, 2025.

Goals: J. Asp (12'), L. Zvonarek (60'), S. Sidler (68'), T. Citherlet (90').

FC Winterthur controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 16.

The match was played at Letzigrund Stadion in Zurich.