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FC Winterthur vs Grasshoppers — Super League 2025

FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
M. Frey 90'
J. Asp 18'
4/11/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Winterthur32%
×Draw25%
Grasshoppers43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Winterthur
1.33
Grasshoppers
1.57

Grasshoppers creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Winterthur
1.38
Grasshoppers
1.27

allows per match

FC Winterthur
1.87
Grasshoppers
1.29

finishing

FC Winterthur-0.78scores less
Grasshoppers-0.07on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

Grasshoppers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw
57%
FC Winterthur or Grasshoppers
75%
Draw or Grasshoppers
68%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+
14%
Grasshoppers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals
74%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
38%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
15%
Grasshoppers 1+ goals
79%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
46%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
43%
Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.87 · 5 matches

Grasshoppers away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.38 + Grasshoppers defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Grasshoppers attack 1.27 + FC Winterthur defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Winterthur scores more
32%
level
25%
Grasshoppers scores more
43%

Grasshoppers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. AspGrasshoppersGrasshoppers · M
9.2

Match Events

-5'
Antonio Spagnoli
18'
J. Asp↳ A. Arigoni
22'
Fabian Rohner
26'
Andrin HunzikerGoal cancelled
32'
Bafode Dansoko
45'
Tim Meyer
56'
P. Kasami← N. Burkart
57'
R. Schneider← A. Jankewitz
64'
O. Clemente← S. Krasniqi
65'
Simone Stroscio
65'
L. Mikulic← A. Abrashi
68'
M. Ullmann← S. Stroscio
69'
Allan Arigoni
69'
Dirk Abels
74'
E. Maluvunu← R. Arnold
75'
R. Buess← T. Golliard
79'
H. Imourane←
84'
S. Sidler← F. Rohner
87'
Silvan Sidler
90'
Stefanos Kapino
90'
M. Frey↳ M. Ngom

Possession

67%FC

Shots

8FC

Pass accuracy

53%FC

Statistics

FCGrasshoppers
Overview
67%Possession33%
8Total Shots11
0.64Expected Goals (xG)2.02
3Corners3
9Fouls22
Shots
8Total Shots11
1On Target4
6Off Target5
2Blocked2
6Inside Box6
2Outside Box5
Passing
67%Possession33%
502Total Passes243
392Accurate Passes167
78%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
0.61Goals Prevented0.61
Discipline
9Fouls22
5Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Super League: FC Winterthur 0–2 Grasshoppers

Grasshoppers beat FC Winterthur 2-0 in Super League on April 11, 2026.

Goals: J. Asp (18'), M. Frey (90').

FC Winterthur controlled possession (67%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Schützenwiese in Winterthur.