FC Winterthur 0–1 Grasshoppers: Result & Stats

FC Winterthur

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Grasshoppers

N. Muci 90'

11/8/2025

Super League · Round 13Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Winterthur36%

×Draw23%

Grasshoppers40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WinterthurExpected goals in this matchGrasshoppers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.67

FC Winterthur

1.58

Grasshoppers

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

1.25

creates per match

1.13

2.20

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

FC Winterthur

1.25

Grasshoppers

1.13

allows per match

FC Winterthur

2.20

Grasshoppers

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par

Grasshoppers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

Grasshoppers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw

60%

FC Winterthur or Grasshoppers

77%

Draw or Grasshoppers

64%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

18%

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

79%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

47%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

21%

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

81%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

50%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

48%

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

Grasshoppers away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.25 + Grasshoppers defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.58

Grasshoppers attack 1.13 + FC Winterthur defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Winterthur scores more

36%

level

23%

Grasshoppers scores more

40%

Grasshoppers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

S. Sidler

FC Winterthur · D

8.0

Match Events

56'

Óscar Clemente

59'

S. Krasniqi← S. Marques

67'

N. Muci← L. Plange

67'

M. Mantini← T. Meyer

69'

E. Maluvunu← R. Schneider

76'

Souleymane Diaby

80'

P. Kasami← T. Golliard

80'

F. Rohner← S. Diaby

80'

B. Beyer← B. Dansoko

85'

Hassane Imourane

87'

S. Diarrassouba← O. Clemente

90'

Andrin HunzikerGoal cancelled

90+3'

F. Momoh← S. Sidler

90'

N. Muci

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCGrasshoppers

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots18

1.13Expected Goals (xG)1.18

2Corners11

12Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots18

5On Target6

3Off Target7

4Blocked5

7Inside Box12

5Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

400Total Passes387

286Accurate Passes275

72%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2