Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grasshoppers vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2018

Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
2/3/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Grasshoppers44%
×Draw22%
FC Winterthur34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshoppers
1.84
FC Winterthur
1.60

Grasshoppers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 9 away

creates per match

Grasshoppers
1.48
FC Winterthur
1.79

allows per match

Grasshoppers
1.42
FC Winterthur
2.21

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.24scores more
FC Winterthur-0.01on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw
66%
Grasshoppers or FC Winterthur
78%
Draw or FC Winterthur
56%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+
24%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals
84%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
55%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
28%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
80%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
47%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
56%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 29 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.21 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.48 + FC Winterthur defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.84

FC Winterthur attack 1.79 + Grasshoppers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grasshoppers scores more
44%
level
22%
FC Winterthur scores more
34%

Grasshoppers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grasshoppers vs FC Winterthur

FC Winterthur beat Grasshoppers 1-0 in Super League on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.