Grasshoppers 2–3 FC Luzern: Result & Stats

Grasshoppers

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

FC Luzern

L. Plange 31'

N. Muci 5' (pen)

L. M. Silva Ferreira 69'

A. Grbic 38' (pen)

M. Di Giusto 16'

7/26/2025

Super League · Round 1Letzigrund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Grasshoppers35%

×Draw23%

FC Luzern41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrasshoppersExpected goals in this matchFC Luzern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.67

Grasshoppers

1.53

FC Luzern

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

1.56

creates per match

1.77

1.56

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Grasshoppers

1.56

FC Luzern

1.77

allows per match

Grasshoppers

1.56

FC Luzern

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.00on par

FC Luzern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC Luzern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw

59%

Grasshoppers or FC Luzern

77%

Draw or FC Luzern

65%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

17%

FC Luzern wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

78%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

45%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

20%

FC Luzern 1+ goals

81%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

50%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

46%

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.56 + FC Luzern defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

FC Luzern attack 1.77 + Grasshoppers defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Grasshoppers scores more

35%

level

23%

FC Luzern scores more

41%

FC Luzern at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Di Giusto

FC Luzern · M

8.9

Match Events

5'

N. MuciPenalty

16'

M. Di Giusto↳ K. Spadanuda

31'

L. Plange

33'

Yannick Bettkober

37'

Maksim Paskotsi

38'

A. GrbicPenalty

46'

D. Paloschi← Y. Bettkober

63'

M. Mantini← H. Imourane

63'

T. Abe← B. Freimann

63'

L. M. Silva Ferreira← J. Von Moos

69'

L. M. Silva Ferreira↳ M. Di Giusto

70'

S. Marques← T. Veron

71'

L. Giandomenico← S. Stroscio

78'

D. Abels← M. Paskotsi

82'

S. Karweina← M. Di Giusto

83'

A. Vasovic← A. Grbic

90+6'

Amir Abrashi

90+6'

Sinan Karweina

90'

A. Ciganiks← S. Britschgi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrasshoppersFC

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots11

1.59Expected Goals (xG)2.05

9Corners4

12Fouls5

Shots

15Total Shots11

5On Target5

9Off Target4

1Blocked2

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

312Total Passes407

209Accurate Passes286

67%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0