Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grasshoppers vs FC Luzern — Super League 2025

Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Luzern
FC Luzern
A. Bojang 72', 55', 14'
P. Dorn 54'
4/6/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Grasshoppers26%
×Draw23%
FC Luzern51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshoppers
1.24
FC Luzern
1.83

FC Luzern creates 48% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

Grasshoppers
1.37
FC Luzern
2.10

allows per match

Grasshoppers
1.57
FC Luzern
1.10

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.39scores more
FC Luzern+0.07on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC Luzern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw
49%
Grasshoppers or FC Luzern
77%
Draw or FC Luzern
74%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+
11%
FC Luzern wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals
71%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
35%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
13%
FC Luzern 1+ goals
84%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
54%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
34%
FC Luzern (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.37 + FC Luzern defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

FC Luzern attack 2.10 + Grasshoppers defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Grasshoppers scores more
26%
level
23%
FC Luzern scores more
51%

FC Luzern at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
A. BojangGrasshoppersGrasshoppers · F
9.9

Match Events

8'
Levin Winkler
14'
A. Bojang
23'
Dirk AbelsGoal cancelled
33'
S. Karweina← S. Ottiger
33'
A. Cigaņiks← B. Freimann
33'
A. Stanković← L. Winkler
43'
Nestory Irankunda
54'
P. Dorn↳ D. Rrudhani
55'
A. Bojang↳ B. Schmitz
58'
Stefan Knežević
67'
T. Ndenge← S. Kittel
67'
T. Verón Lupi← G. Morandi
67'
T. Owusu← K. Spadanuda
69'
P. Schürpf← N. Irankunda
72'
A. Bojang↳ T. Verón Lupi
73'
L. Villiger← T. Klidje
83'
Adama Bojang
90+1'
M. Choinière← T. Meyer
90+1'
N. Muci← A. Bojang

Possession

43%Grasshoppers

Shots

10Grasshoppers

Pass accuracy

48%Grasshoppers

Statistics

GrasshoppersFC
Overview
43%Possession57%
10Total Shots17
1.36Expected Goals (xG)1.58
2Corners5
10Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots17
4On Target3
6Off Target8
0Blocked6
6Inside Box12
4Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
326Total Passes444
238Accurate Passes354
73%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Super League: Grasshoppers 3–1 FC Luzern

Grasshoppers beat FC Luzern 3-1 in Super League on April 6, 2025.

Goals: A. Bojang (14', 55', 72'), P. Dorn (54').

FC Luzern controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.