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Grasshoppers vs FC Luzern — Super League 2018

Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Luzern
FC Luzern
2/24/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Grasshoppers29%
×Draw24%
FC Luzern47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshoppers
1.27
FC Luzern
1.69

FC Luzern creates 33% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 7 away

creates per match

Grasshoppers
1.48
FC Luzern
1.95

allows per match

Grasshoppers
1.42
FC Luzern
1.05

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.24scores more
FC Luzern+0.19scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC Luzern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw
53%
Grasshoppers or FC Luzern
76%
Draw or FC Luzern
71%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+
12%
FC Luzern wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals
72%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
36%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
14%
FC Luzern 1+ goals
82%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
50%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
38%
FC Luzern (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 29 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.48 + FC Luzern defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

FC Luzern attack 1.95 + Grasshoppers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Grasshoppers scores more
29%
level
24%
FC Luzern scores more
47%

FC Luzern at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Grasshoppers 0–1 FC Luzern

FC Luzern beat Grasshoppers 1-0 in Super League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.