Granada CF 1–1 Elche: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Elche

G. Tsitaishvili 13'

Óscar Plano 16'

4/26/2025

Segunda División · Round 37Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Granada CF49%

×Draw27%

Elche24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.92

Granada CF

1.43

Elche

0.92

Granada CF creates 55% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 86 away

1.57

creates per match

1.07

0.76

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Granada CF

1.57

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Granada CF

0.76

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

76%

Granada CF or Elche

73%

Draw or Elche

51%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

24%

Elche wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

76%

Granada CF 2+ goals

42%

Granada CF 3+ goals

17%

Elche 1+ goals

60%

Elche 2+ goals

23%

Elche 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

67%

Elche (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.57 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Elche attack 1.07 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Granada CF scores more

49%

level

27%

Elche scores more

24%

Granada CF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Gonzalo Villar

Granada CF · M

7.5

Match Events

13'

G. Tsitaishvili

16'

Óscar Plano↳ Álvaro Núñez

20'

Germán Valera

46'

Miguel Brau← Carlos Neva

50'

Lucas BoyéMissed penalty

54'

Nicolás Castro

59'

Álex Martín

67'

Nicolás Fernández

67'

E. Rashani← Germán Valera

67'

Marc Aguado← N. Castro

67'

M. El Ghezouani← Óscar Plano

69'

Gonzalo Villar

71'

Elbasan Rashani

72'

Sergio Rodelas← A. Rebbach

77'

Loïc Williams

79'

Ricard Sánchez← Sergio Ruiz

79'

Stoichkov← G. Tsitaishvili

79'

Mario Gaspar← Álex Martín

84'

Pejiño← Josan

87'

Borja Bastón← L. Boyé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaElche

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots8

4Corners2

14Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots8

2On Target3

4Off Target3

7Blocked2

9Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

332Total Passes481

276Accurate Passes430

83%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides3

Segunda División: Granada CF 1–1 Elche

Granada CF and Elche drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 26, 2025.

Goals: G. Tsitaishvili (13'), Óscar Plano (16').

Elche controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.

Granada CF vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Granada CF 1–1 Elche