Granada CF 0–1 Elche: Result & Stats | La Liga

Granada CF

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Elche

Fidel 11'

3/12/2022

La Liga · Round 28Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Granada CF49%

×Draw25%

Elche26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.05

Granada CF

1.56

Elche

1.05

Granada CF creates 49% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 76 away

1.29

creates per match

0.83

1.28

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Granada CF

1.29

Elche

0.83

allows per match

Granada CF

1.28

Elche

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

74%

Granada CF or Elche

75%

Draw or Elche

51%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

25%

Elche wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

79%

Granada CF 2+ goals

46%

Granada CF 3+ goals

21%

Elche 1+ goals

65%

Elche 2+ goals

28%

Elche 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

66%

Elche (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Elche away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.29 + Elche defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Elche attack 0.83 + Granada CF defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Granada CF scores more

49%

level

25%

Elche scores more

26%

Granada CF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Luis Milla

Granada CF · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

Fidel↳ Pere Milla

32'

Lucas Boyé

37'

Raul Torrente Navarro

49'

Enzo Roco

54'

Quini

56'

Njegoš Petrović

61'

Jorge Molina← Raúl Torrente

61'

D. Machís← M. Uzuni

65'

Gerard Gumbau

67'

Tete Morente← L. Boyé

70'

Johan Mojica

72'

Rochina← Álex Collado

74'

G. Carrillo← E. Ponce

74'

I. Marcone← Gumbau

77'

Antonio Puertas← L. Suárez

77'

Ismael Ruiz← N. Petrović

82'

Fidel

86'

Gonzalo Verdú← Fidel

86'

L. Olaza← H. Palacios

88'

Lucas Olaza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaElche

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots13

3Corners3

15Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots13

4On Target2

6Off Target6

5Blocked5

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

504Total Passes390

395Accurate Passes288

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls16

3Yellow Cards6

1Offsides1