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Elche vs Granada CF — La Liga 2026

Elche
Elche
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Granada CF
Granada CF
1/2/2022La LigaLa Liga · Round 19Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Elche44%
×Draw25%
Granada CF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.52
Granada CF
1.21

Elche creates 26% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 58 away

creates per match

Elche
1.18
Granada CF
1.21

allows per match

Elche
1.21
Granada CF
1.86

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Granada CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Elche or draw
70%
Elche or Granada CF
75%
Draw or Granada CF
56%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
22%
Granada CF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
78%
Elche 2+ goals
45%
Elche 3+ goals
20%
Granada CF 1+ goals
70%
Granada CF 2+ goals
34%
Granada CF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
59%
Granada CF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.18 + Granada CF defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Granada CF attack 1.21 + Elche defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elche scores more
44%
level
25%
Granada CF scores more
30%

Elche at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
GumbauElcheElche · M
7.7

Match Events

18'
Guido CarrilloGoal cancelled
45+5'
Jose Morente
45+5'
Javier Pastore
45+4'
Fidel
45+8'
Luis Javier Suárez
45+6'
Darwin Machís
47'
Diego Gonzalez
54'
Gonzalo Verdú← J. Pastore
58'
Quini
64'
Víctor Díaz← Quini
69'
Josan Ferrández← Tete Morente
69'
Pere Milla← Fidel
80'
P. Piatti← G. Carrillo
81'
Ismael Ruiz← M. Gonalons
81'
Alberto Soro← Antonio Puertas

Possession

48%Elche

Shots

18Elche

Pass accuracy

50%Elche

Statistics

ElcheGranada
Overview
48%Possession52%
18Total Shots10
6Corners3
18Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots10
2On Target5
11Off Target3
5Blocked2
11Inside Box8
7Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
359Total Passes409
274Accurate Passes316
76%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Elche vs Granada CF

Elche and Granada CF drew 0-0 in La Liga on January 2, 2022.

Granada CF controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.