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Granada CF vs Cordoba — Segunda División 2018

Granada CF
Granada CF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cordoba
Cordoba
11/22/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Granada CF55%
×Draw25%
Cordoba20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada CF
1.65
Cordoba
0.90

Granada CF creates 83% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 74 away

creates per match

Granada CF
1.56
Cordoba
1.04

allows per match

Granada CF
0.76
Cordoba
1.74

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par
Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw
80%
Granada CF or Cordoba
75%
Draw or Cordoba
45%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+
30%
Cordoba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals
81%
Granada CF 2+ goals
49%
Granada CF 3+ goals
23%
Cordoba 1+ goals
59%
Cordoba 2+ goals
23%
Cordoba 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)
73%
Cordoba (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Cordoba defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cordoba attack 1.04 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Granada CF scores more
55%
level
25%
Cordoba scores more
20%

Granada CF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granada CF vs Cordoba

Granada CF and Cordoba drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.